While the European private equity sector experienced a real boom in 2021, the war in Ukraine has put an end to this post- pandemic upswing for the time being. Due to the combination of high inflation, rising interest rates and an overall tense economic and geopolitical situation, deal activity with private equity participation fell, especially in the second half of 2022. In 2022 as a whole, a total of 2544 PE transactions took place (down 19 percent compared to the previous year). The total value of Deals only fell 4 percent, but at 208.6 billion euros this was above the pre-pandemic averages.
These are the findings of the “Private Equity Trend Report 2023”, for which PwC Germany surveyed 250 private equity firms.
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The study recorded a total of 2544 transactions with private equity participation in Europe in 2022. Compared to the previous year, this is a decline of 19 percent. The deal value of all transactions was 208.6 billion. This is around 4 percent less than the previous year.
Germany, Austria and Switzerland were hit particularly hard by the decline in PE transactions: in 2022, a total of 437 PE transactions took place in the DACH region - around a third fewer than in the previous year (679). The plunge was even more noticeable in the total value of the deals: the value fell by 52 percent to 18.1 billion euros.
The total value of private equity deals fell more sharply than the number of transactions in 2022. The reason: in view of the difficult macroeconomic environments and the banks’ unwillingness to provide financing, PE investors tended to focus on the existing portfolio in order to drive value generation.
Unlike in previous years, European PE investors weren’t most interested in the Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) sector, but rather in the Industrial Production sector. This accounted for a total of 36 percent of all PE deals. TMT and consumer goods were the second strongest sectors, 24 percent of PE transactions took place in each of these sectors.
However, the study shows shifts in the focus of investors: the pandemic-related high interest in technology companies is dying down; instead, investors are increasingly setting their sights on targets from the energy, logistics and infrastructure sectors. Targets from the consumer goods sector are also becoming increasingly popular: 40 percent of respondents want to invest in this sector in the next two to three years.
The UK and Ireland lost their leading position in the European PE market for the first time: PE investors from France were involved in almost every fourth transaction (23 percent) followed by investors from the UK and Ireland - with 21 percent. Germany defended its position as the third most active takeover market: 13 percent of all transactions - three percent less than the previous year - took place in Germany.
93 percent of investors who have already made investments in Germany intend to continue doing so. However only 42 percent want to increase their investment amount: in 2021, 80 percent were still planning to do so.
However, Germany is likely to remain attractive for investors in the future: 83 percent of respondents believe that Germany is a good location for PE activities. When asked which region will become more attractive for PE investments in the next five years, Germany lands in third place with 68 percent of mentions, behind the United Kingdom (81 percent) and the USA (76 percent).
99 percent want to invest in digitisation
For the overwhelming majority of respondents, digitisation is a central lever for value creation: 99 percent want to invest further in digitisation in the coming year. Data analyses in particular play an important role: 78 percent plan to put money into this area. Data analyses are often used for due diligence and valuation of companies, but increasingly also for identifying potential target companies. 61 percent of respondents report that they already rely on data analytics to find attractive acquisition targets; by 2023, a good three-quarters of respondents plan to do so.
There is a consensus on another issue: without exception, all respondents say they have a responsible investment policy in place and the tools to implement it. In 2021, this share was only 77 percent. Almost two-thirds (64 percent) already use ESG-specific KPIs for all their portfolio companies. These include, for example, the carbon footprint and water consumption or key figures on diversity and inclusion. In 2021, this share was only 17 percent.
At the same time, there is a growing conviction that a focus on environmental, social and governance issues is also beneficial to a company’s financial performance: 71 percent agree with the statement that the ROI of ESG exceeds the costs; in the previous year only 36 percent of respondents had this opinion.
The PE transaction with the highest value in 2022 (42.7 billion) was made by Blackstone and the Benetton family: Through an investment vehicle, they privatised the Italian infrastructure group Atlantia.
Blackstone was also responsible for the second largest deal of the year - the 21 billion Euro recapitalisation of Mileway, a logistics real estate company specialising in last minute delivery across Europe.
In the third largest PE deal of the year, US private equity firm KKR bought UK energy company ContourGlobal for 5.1 billion Euros.
PE firms have tried to do their best in the past years despite difficult conditions: for example, six out of ten respondents report that they have increased the number of potential transactions they have looked at in 2022 compared to the previous year.
Competition between investors is intensifying: 71 percent say that competition among PE firms for investment has increased in the past year. 30 percent even mention a significant increase.
55 percent of respondents admit that their return on investment (ROI) over the past five to seven years has been lower than expected. Last year, the picture was different. At that time, only 15 percent reported ROI below expectations, while 34 percent reported ROI above expectations (2022: 6 percent).
Although the signs for 2023 are not promising, financial investors are cautiously optimistic: 44 percent expect the European private equity market to improve in 2023. One-third expect no change at all, while 23 percent expect things to get worse. The main concerns for respondents are rising financial costs and regulations, as well as the difficulty of raising financing for deals.
“We are optimistic that the traditionally good DACH players in the private equity market will find their way to come to terms with the current challenge.”
PwC surveyed 250 European partners and managing directors in private equity firms in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, with each participating firm having at least 250 million euros in assets under management. Around 13 percent of the respondents were from Germany.
Claudio Prante
Partner, Head of Deals Strategy, Sustainability Leader in Deals, PwC Switzerland
Tel: +41 58 792 47 14